Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.323562 14.086799 15.997576 18.220098 20.732193 23.481589 26.716796
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.648845 11.992945 14.735529 18.173515 22.360013 27.284197 33.506945
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.083608 10.603283 13.699506 17.770002 22.965385 29.358379 37.804341
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.070267 9.725720 13.132757 17.802566 24.012169 31.958044 42.865894
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.393513 9.163175 12.851230 18.090065 25.304057 34.846951 48.378995
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.788860 8.614702 12.507597 18.220372 26.340452 37.409377 53.570809
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.197729 8.011365 12.011949 18.062718 26.918978 39.329868 57.943365
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.788400 7.623762 11.774457 18.228882 27.932905 41.879376 63.312947
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.545225 7.456564 11.834455 18.817910 29.578507 45.403905 70.272011
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.141891 6.999291 11.411539 18.628737 30.021145 47.158065 74.678596
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.611422 6.287777 10.532084 17.651486 29.163833 46.874939 75.938641
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.430709 6.132533 10.518963 18.041173 30.464518 49.956227 82.549799
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.252617 5.971828 10.492777 18.420926 31.796693 53.201623 89.677695
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.985122 5.632361 10.141586 18.230784 32.176078 54.942659 94.486123
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.718584 5.268483 9.716025 17.873267 32.234342 56.138664 98.432360
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.538655 5.045560 9.516799 17.890027 32.924504 58.407645 104.279001
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.416722 4.919351 9.478077 18.184339 34.108971 61.564116 111.789992
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.281337 4.754887 9.355497 18.313423 34.999594 64.252247 118.620300
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.119466 4.523819 9.090239 18.155633 35.352280 66.006347 123.884172
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.012318 4.392386 9.002433 18.322392 36.305853 68.865307 131.251099
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.963144 4.375073 9.132745 18.914345 38.087937 73.303653 141.697935
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.828894 4.168128 8.873659 18.724232 38.361045 74.984546 147.146907
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.622681 3.789072 8.240350 17.742249 37.031330 73.604762 146.794990